Another predication sadly coming true...

Another one of my music industry predications for 2014 looks to also be sadly coming true. Here's what I predicted... So Far

Lemmy Will Become New Ozzy – Remember when Ozzy was the crown prince of metal? That all changed once the family reality show became popular. The prince of darkness became that mumbling shell of a man who couldn’t work his TV remote. Even though the metal community still respects Ozzy as an artist and performer, he’s hard to be taken seriously as the crown prince of metal. Lemmy is another icon from the metal genre who is often referred to simply as a god. “Lemmy IS god” as pointed out in the movie Airheads. Sadly, Lemmy’s popularity is starting to branch out past his band and music and as his popularity has grown in recent years, it’s getting harder and harder to see him as a “metal god”. His music will always have its place, but in 2014 if Lemmy’s popularity continues to grow in mainstream media, it will become hard for him to maintain his ‘god’ status.

So far Lemmy hasn't joined Ozzy in becoming the tail end of a joke of his former self. But a couple things have recently been released that seem to indicate he could be heading down that path.

First...the Lemmy Garden Gnome

Next...not even Lemmy's Mole can escape the road to becoming a joke on it's own.



All this is happening while Lemmy is posting reports on his health. 
http://www.blabbermouth.net/news/motorheads-lemmy-on-his-health-im-getting-back-there/
As I said from the start...this is a prediction that I am sad so see becoming true. 

I share my thoughts on the U2 thing

First off, it looks like another one of my music industry predictions for 2014 is coming true. I predicted that the U2 album would flop (see original 2014 prediction at the bottom of this blog). Not only would I consider the release of the new U2 album a flop, but the negative ramifications from their partnership with Apple and how the album was released/delivered is just another example of how the music industry continually misses the mark when it comes to engaging their target audience.

Let’s look at what U2 and Apple did. First they gave away the new U2 album away for free. I’ve talked about this before, giving something away for does not build fan/customer engagement. Yes, I’m sure a lot of U2 fans appreciated getting the new album for free, but we’re not hearing from them. I have yet to hear any U2 fan say getting U2’s album for free was awesome. I have yet to hear any U2 fan say that they like the new album. From what I’ve seen, the U2 fans are keeping pretty quiet about this album.

What we have heard is how frustrated non-U2 fans are.

So why didn’t this work? You’ve got one of the biggest bands in the world partnered with not only the biggest music retailer, but a company known for having an extremely loyal and engaged customer base. In theory this probably should’ve worked. So why didn’t it?

People have an emotional connection to their music. Their music collection is something personal. A reflection of who they are. It’s part of their identity. Whether they bought the music or downloaded it for free, a choice was made to add that music to their collection. What U2 and Apple did was remove that choice. I’ve always hated getting clothes as gifts for Christmas or my birthday mainly because I have no say in what style of clothing I get. I have no choice and because I didn’t pick the clothes out myself, I rarely if ever actually wear them. For people who don’t like U2, this was the equivalent of getting an ugly sweater from your aunt for Christmas.

I have seen some people say that a positive that came out of all the negative reaction to the free U2 album was it showed how passionate people are about their music collection.  How people reacted reinforced the emotional connection to music as well as the fact that one’s music collection is a reflection of who someone is. It is part of their identity. I don’t disagree with any of that, but I guarantee this was not the intent of U2 or Apple.

The same can be said for those who say this was a great reminder that we need to be conscious of our security settings on our devices. The fact that this was an invasion of privacy and that people feel violated has been one of the biggest complaints, but we all have the option to set our own security settings on our phones. Sure for those of us who haven’t taken the time to set our own security setting it was a nice little reminder to do so, but again this was not the intent of U2 or Apple.

Something I have yet to hear in all the discussions is what was U2 and/or Apple’s intent? What were they trying to achieve or do? Some have assumed that U2 was trying to reach a new generation of fans, the most of which simply reacted by saying “Who’s U2?” and then deleting the album.

If you are using an older iPhone model, like the iPhone 4 you didn’t get the album. Was this an attempt by Apple to encourage people to upgrade? What about U2 fans who don’t use Apple products, was this an attempt to get them to switch over?

I have also heard some people say that U2 giving away their album for free through Apple was smart marketing. Typically I would disagree with that, most of the reasons why I have already outlined, but one thing I think does support that argument is the fact that this whole thing has everyone talking about U2, Apple and Apple’s products. Was that the intent? Did U2 and Apple sit down and say “How can we get everyone talking about us? I know…lets piss everyone off” Probably not. 

In the end, this was just another example of the music industry having no clue how to engage music fans, and this time the offenders are people who are supposed to be at the top of this game. The leaders in the industry. For me, this was just another example of how badly things need to change.

2014 Prediction: New U2 Album Will Be A Flop – This prediction is more of a gut feeling. There seems to be a lot of buzz and talk about the upcoming new U2 album. First there were the rumors about its release, then the tie into the Nelson Mandela movie and then other stories about U2 parting ways with their long time manager and making appearances at small club shows and sitting in with cover bands at weddings. Bono was even out busking (supposedly a Christmas tradition) in his hometown over the holidays. With all this hype, my gut is telling me the album will be a flop. Sure you’ll probably hear the first official single all over the radio and there will be some significant sales out of the gate, but the hype will fade quickly and we’ll spend less time talking about the album than was spent hyping the release.

More Music Industry Self-Destruction

Having an engaged fan base (customer base) is crucial in the music industry. Here’s another example of how the industry side has once again dropped the ball when it has come to music fan engagement.

I’ve mentioned before that when it comes to some of my favorite bands, I will always go out and buy a physical copy of their CD. For the most part, these bands are bands I’ve been a fan of for years and have the rest of their catalog on CD already, but every once and while a new band will come around that I’m really impressed with and for whatever reason has engaged me enough as a fan that I decide to go out and buy a physical copy of their CD, rather than just download it.

A band that has recently joined the list of artists who’s CDs I will go out and buy is Saskatoon’s One Bad Son. I have been aware of these guys for a long time and right from the start I’ve always been impressed with their work ethic, passion and drive for what they are doing. Recently I’ve been impressed with their focus on getting their friends and fans excited about their new CD through social media. Posting links to where new tracks could be streamed, sharing images from the CD as soon as they received them and then ensuring they made everyone aware of when the CD was available both online and at retailers like HMV.

Being completely engaged and genuinely excited about the release of One Bad Son’s new CD “Black Buffalo”, the same day I saw the band’s post that the CD was now available, I went to HMV on my lunch break to pick it up. Much to my disappointment, the HMV did not have it out on the shelves. I asked one of the staff if they had received it. She checked the computer and told me that they still had a bunch of boxes in the back that hadn’t been received yet, so she would go see if it was in one of those. 15 minutes later she returned and informed me that there were too many boxes to check through, but if I wanted she could call another store to see if they had processed their orders. I asked when the order would be processed. She said tomorrow, so I told her I’d come back then and I left the store disappointed that the HMV didn’t obviously didn’t take “New Release Tuesday” very seriously anymore if they hadn’t even processed their entire new release shipment. Back when I was a rep for one of the major labels that would’ve been unacceptable. But a lot has changed in the industry since those days, and this was possibly another example of how much the industry didn’t seem to care about CD sales.  At least I could pick up the CD tomorrow…

So I went back the next day…

One Bad Son’s “Black Buffalo” was nowhere to be found. The same HMV employee was working again, so I asked her if the shipment had been processed yet. She informed me that it had been “separated” and offered to go look for the CD again. Another 15 minutes later she returned to inform me it was not part of the shipment and that she checked with the other HMV’s in the city and none of them had received it. She even took it a step further and said “for whatever reason, Universal music is holding back the shipment…”

She then asked if I would like to leave my name and they would call me once it’s in, which I’ve done in the past but have never received a call when stock has arrived, so I simply said “No thanks, I’ll just download it”

Now I know CD sales are rapidly decreasing, but I think this is another great example of the music industries own self-destructive behavior contributing to the rapid decline. Yes, the internet and streaming options are also contribute to decline, but we can’t just point our fingers at the online impact. I know I’m not the only person who likes to still buy CDs. I know I’m not the only person who misses the ‘record store’ shopping experience.

When the VCR was first introduced the movie industry was worried about the impact renting movies would have on movie theatres. There was an impact, but minimal because what the movie industry soon discovered was that people still liked going to the theatre. The big screen, the amazing sound system, the overpriced bucket of popcorn were all part of the movie going experience that people still wanted. Much like I make buying decisions like “I’ll download it” or “I’ll buy the CD”, people did the same with movies. You often heard “I’ll wait till it comes out on video” or “I NEED to see this in the theatre”

Yes, I know over the past couple of years the movie theatres are starting to see a bigger impact from changes in the industry. One of the bigger ones I believe is that people are now building their own mini-theatres in their homes. Comfortable seating, surround sound, big screen and a bucket of popcorn with the option to go to the kitchen to get more. All those factors are having an impact on the movie going experience.

That being said though, it will be a long time before the internet can figure out a way to take away the “record store” experience but if retailers and labels don’t figure out pretty quickly that they need to focus on customer engagement and start recreating the customer experience of buying music we will continue to see a decline not only in CD sales, but music sales in general. It’s already happening.  Every Tuesday I used to go to my local music retailer to see what new release came out. Now every Tuesday I sit down at my computer and peruse through the new releases on iTunes.  All I need now is that music elitist looking at me in disgust for the albums I decide to purchase and my record store experience will almost be complete.

Going back to the original point of this rant, like I said one of the things I respect about One Bad Son is their work ethic, passion and drive for what they are doing. They are continuing to make an effort to engage their friends and fans, creating excitement about their new CD. They spent most of the summer touring all across Canada playing in front of some of the biggest crowds they have had the opportunity to be in front of in their career. To add to this promotional engagement machine, their current single is getting tons of airplay and recently cracked the Top 5 on the Canadian Active Rock charts! In theory, all the pieces should be falling into place. This band is doing what it’s supposed to, even more than other bands I follow.

I’d like to think this is an isolated incident, but sadly I have a feeling it’s not.