Music Industry Predictions for 2014

Something I look forward to every year at this time is reading various lists, posts and blogs about people’s predictions for the coming year. Being a big music fan, I have especially enjoyed predictions about what will happen in the continuously changing music industry. Over the past couple of years, I have really enjoyed seeing which predictions align with my own thoughts on what direction the music industry is heading.

For 2014, I decided to throw my hat in the mix and share some of my predictions for the coming year.

Feel free to let me know what you think of my predictions. Do you agree, disagree or are there any other predictions for the coming year you think should be added to the list.

Music Industry Predictions for 2014

Internet In Cars – This prediction is probably fairly obvious. There seem to be daily posts about how much closer this is to becoming a reality. The car manufactures are pushing for it. Internet providers are extending their reach so that you can access their internet anywhere. Being able to access the internet in your vehicles is just around the corner. The big question is what would be the ramifications once this step is made. How will it impact radio? Music streaming services? How we drive? Will ‘distracted driving’ laws need to be more strictly enforced?

Streaming Sites Decrease – I have mixed feelings about streaming sites. As a music fan I think they’re a great option when looking for something to listen to. As someone working in the music industry and seeing the fractions of a cent that gets paid out to musicians when their music is played, that I’m not a fan of. There’s been a lot of discussion about streaming sites with some artists even refusing to allow their tracks to be played on these sites. There has also been some discussion as to what kind of real impact these sites are having on music discovery or introducing their listeners to new artists. There seems to be more and more streaming sites popping up every day with big name players like Google, iTunes and YouTube entering the mix. I personally don’t think the streaming sites will last. Near the end of 2013 we also saw a handful of these sites shut down and/or get bought out by others looking to enter the market. Even with Internet in cars just around the corner, the market will get saturated and start to self-destruct. I don’t think we will see the end of Streaming sites in 2014, but I think we are quickly approaching the tipping point and you will most likely see less streaming sites by the end of the year. We’re at the tipping point and depending on who comes out on top once everything is all said and done, that will determine the real future of streaming sites.

Chad Kroger and/or Nickelback Will Go Country – I’ve been predicting this one for a while now and I think if we see anything come out from Nickelback or Chad Kroger in 2014 it will be leaning a lot more towards the Country genre. In fact, I’m willing to bet that if Chad releases a solo album it will for sure be a country album. Chad knows that the natural progression for a large portion of his audience is to start gravitating towards country music. He’s already been testing the water, having worked with Mutt Lange and even covering some Country staples during Nickelback’s life shows. Dallas Smith from Default has successfully made the jump, Darius Rucker from Hootie & The Blow Fish, even Dave Grohl produced Zack Brown’s new album and even played drums with him at the Country Music Awards. The door is open Chad, put on your cowboy boots, grabbed a hat and embrace your country Alberta roots.

Talent Shows Are Done – Who won the last American Idol? What about The Voice? X-Factor? These shows have been dominating network television for close to a decade now, but in the past couple of years there has been more press about the judges rather than the actual contestants and all the shows have seen a steady drop in the ratings. 2014 we will see the plug pulled on some of these shows, if not all of them.

The Rise Of Celebrity DJs – Various celebrities trying their hand at DJing isn’t something new, in fact it’s been around and made fun of for a while now. This past week I read an article about Paris Hilton being one of the highest paid and sought after DJs in the world. In 2010 when she first started DJing, it was perceived as a joke and mocked by everyone from TMZ to the late night talk shows, but it turns out she never stopped spinning and has built herself up as a legitimate DJ. I have a feeling this could be the catalyst that launches a brief popularity amongst celebrity DJ’s. It will become the in thing, to have a celebrity DJ your party or event. It’s already happening, but now that Paris Hilton is considered a legit DJ, you will become mainstream, over-saturated and self-destruct destroying the credibility of DJ’s, both celebrity and non-celebrity, everywhere.

New U2 Album Will Be A Flop – This prediction is more of a gut feeling. There seems to be a lot of buzz and talk about the upcoming new U2 album. First there were the rumors about its release, then the tie into the Nelson Mandela movie and then other stories about U2 parting ways with their long time manager and making appearances at small club shows and sitting in with cover bands at weddings. Bono was even out busking (supposedly a Christmas tradition) in his hometown over the holidays. With all this hype, my gut is telling me the album will be a flop. Sure you’ll probably hear the first official single all over the radio and there will be some significant sales out of the gate, but the hype will fade quickly and we’ll spend less time talking about the album than was spent hyping the release.

Hipsters Imploding – The hipster trend is also at its tipping point. The hipster culture and lifestyle has become so trendy and mainstream that they will soon realize that they are what they hate. Soon hipsters will be going out of their way to not be seen as a stereotypical hipster, which will prove to be a challenge in itself once they discover that even if they find a new way to be a hipster, they’ll still be a hipster. It’s like when Alternative became mainstream and people desperately tried to find the Alternative to Alternative. The Hipster culture has reached its peak, time to start self loathing. No offence to my hipster friends out there (luckily most of my hipster friends are in denial about being hipsters so I doubt they will take any offence)

Lemmy Will Become New Ozzy – Remember when Ozzy was the crown prince of metal? That all changed once the family reality show became popular. The prince of darkness became that mumbling shell of a man who couldn’t work his TV remote. Even though the metal community still respects Ozzy as an artist and performer, he’s hard to be taken seriously as the crown prince of metal. Lemmy is another icon from the metal genre who is often referred to simply as a god. “Lemmy IS god” as pointed out in the movie Airheads. Sadly, Lemmy’s popularity is starting to branch out past his band and music and as his popularity has grown in recent years, it’s getting harder and harder to see him as a “metal god”. His music will always have its place, but in 2014 if Lemmy’s popularity continues to grow in mainstream media, it will become hard for him to maintain his ‘god’ status.

The Return Of Rock – This one is more of a hope than a prediction. People have been predicting the death of rock going all the way back to when Elvis first joined the army. The latest ‘cause’ of the unavoidable death of rock was supposed to be the increase in popularity of EDM and DJs, but even though there wasn’t really any ‘big’ rock releases in 2013, Rock was far from being dead and I think in 2014 you might see a bit of a come back. People are tired of the over saturation of pop music, the obvious use of auto tune and the lack of legitimately talent musicians. In 2013 we saw some new pure rock bands grow in popularity. Monster Truck, The Sheepdogs, One Bad Son and others have gone back to playing real rock music and people are getting back into it with them. I anxious to see if this trend continues in 2014. 

Label Services Will Grow And Grow - This one isn't mine. I actually saw this on Mark Mulligan's "Music Industry Blog" and its definitely a prediction I not only agree with but I am excited to see happen. The current model of the music industry is broken and for years now I've been saying two things. First that artist are in a position, now more than ever, to be able to run their own business and take control of their careers. They used to need labels to help them with this, but as I said the old working model of the music industry is broken and that brings me to the second thing, that things need to change. The growth of label services could very well be that catalyst to change. Labels have been buying each other out and laying off people on a regular basis. We're now seeing a handful of these laid off former label employees starting their own companies, not label but companies that offer label services. Basically labels for hire. An artist can hire these individuals to do what a label would do for them. The benefit to artists? They're hiring these music industry professionals to work for them. The artists technically are the bosses. This new service has grown to the point that an handful of major artists are now anxiously waiting out their contracts to make the switch and take control of their business and careers. Why am I a fan of this one? Not only is it a much needed change in the industry, but it's also what I've been doing with my company, Oddball Productions since leaving my major label job back in 2005.